US Employment Declines Despite a Drop in JOLTS Jobs, but the USD Keeps Rising

Following coronavirus restrictions, which have helped the US survive the past two years, employment in the country has increased dramatically; however, it appears that this surge may have come to an end. The JOLTS report indicates that the number of new job openings in the US has dropped to its lowest level since March 2021. However, the USD is still rising against all other currencies except the Yen as it did yesterday.

This decline will give the Fed greater confidence when it comes to ending the rate-hiking cycle and switching to rate reduction in 2024. The JOLTS survey found 8.733 million job openings, down from 9.553 million, which was far less than the 9.3 million consensus. The US currency declined as the FX market responded swiftly. But since the publication, it has increased, partially because of a concurrently released, marginally improved ISM services index.

Jobs at JOLTs Available October 2023 

• Lowest level since March 2021: JOLTs October job openings 8.733M vs. 9.300M estimate.
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• 9.553M last month (updated to 9.350M)
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• 3.7% of hires compared to 3.7% earlier.
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• 3.6% separation rate compared to 3.6% earlier.
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• 2.3% quit compared to 2.3% earlier. It was the same rate for the fourth consecutive month.

Job Openings: On October's last working day, there was a significant decline in job openings, with 617,000 fewer positions available overall, to 8.7 million. The rate of job openings decreased to 5.3%, a drop of 1.1 percentage points from the prior year and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. A number of industries saw notable declines in job openings, including finance and insurance (-168,000), real estate and rental and leasing (-49,000), and health care and social assistance (-236,000). On the other hand, there were 39,000 more job openings in the information sector. A weaker employment picture is indicated by lower job openings.

Resignations: In October, there were 3,600,000 fewer quitters than in September, with a 2.3% rate for the fourth consecutive month. In the professional business services sector, there were more quotes (by +97k). An increase in resignations indicates optimism about the labor market. The number hasn't changed much for the fourth straight month, which indicates that confidence is starting to decline.